2028 Dem Race Just Got MESSY!
Kamala Harris’s standing in the 2028 Democratic primary has plunged as Pete Buttigieg emerges as the surprise frontrunner, raising fresh doubts about her national political future.
At a Glance
Pete Buttigieg leads the latest AtlasIntel 2028 poll with 31.5% support
Kamala Harris drops to third place with 16.6%, down from 24% in April
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez surpasses Harris, earning 19.4% support
J.D. Vance tops the GOP field with 37.3%, ahead of Marco Rubio
Harris faces speculation about a pivot to California’s gubernatorial race
Party Power Shift
The Democratic landscape for 2028 is in flux. In a poll conducted by AtlasIntel between May 21 and May 27, former Vice President Kamala Harris’s support has collapsed to 16.6%, marking a sharp decline from her 24% showing just a month prior. The shift places her behind Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 19.4% and vaults Pete Buttigieg to the top with a commanding 31.5%.
The poll, which surveyed 3,469 U.S. adults with a ±2.2% margin of error, offers a snapshot of evolving Democratic sentiment. It suggests that Buttigieg, despite a failed 2020 presidential bid, has capitalized on name recognition and broad appeal cultivated during his tenure as Transportation Secretary. His prior campaign infrastructure and fundraising prowess—raising over $75 million in 2020—add muscle to his current standing.
Watch a report: Democrats in Disarray: 2028 Shake-Up.
As Harris slips, speculation is intensifying around her next political move. Unverified reports suggest she may eye a gubernatorial run in California, though no formal announcement has been made. Political scientist Grant Davis Reeher argues that recent revelations about President Biden’s health may be indirectly tarnishing Harris’s image, framing her as either complicit or ineffective within the administration.
A Fractured Field
While Buttigieg and Ocasio-Cortez gain momentum, other Democratic names such as Cory Booker, Gavin Newsom, Josh Shapiro, and Gretchen Whitmer trail far behind with limited public traction. None have formally declared their candidacy, and some insiders suggest that Harris’s fall may be prompting a renewed scramble for an electable moderate or progressive alternative.
Buttigieg himself has remained cautious, telling reporters that “any kind of decision process there is a long way off”. This hesitance mirrors broader Democratic uncertainty as the party assesses how to recapture critical swing-state demographics lost in recent cycles.
Meanwhile, on the Republican side, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance leads with 37.3%, followed by Florida’s Marco Rubio at 18.7%. With Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis stepping aside, the GOP appears to be consolidating around a new generation of hard-right populists.
In contrast to past polling where Harris led the pack, this latest data signals a dramatic shift in grassroots enthusiasm. Whether this is a temporary dip or a lasting collapse remains to be seen—but for now, the 2028 race has been blown wide open.