French Regulators Target Polymarket After Betting Platform Accurately Predicted Trump Victory
After successfully forecasting President-elect Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 election, decentralized betting platform Polymarket is under investigation by French authorities. Known for allowing real-time, economically motivated bets, Polymarket attracted attention for its accurate predictions, sparking both praise from market participants and scrutiny from regulators abroad.
On election night, Polymarket’s odds reflected Trump’s lead hours before major news networks announced his victory. This accuracy fueled interest in prediction markets, which many see as more reliable than traditional polls. Polymarket CEO Shane Coplan defended the platform’s approach on CNBC, explaining that it functions as a peer-to-peer market with a “tightest spread,” enabling prices to reflect genuine expectations rather than personal preferences.
The French regulator had been eyeing Polymarket — the crypto betting platform which showed Trump being favored to win the presidency — since before its recent surge in popularityhttps://t.co/Vw0R8pzJ14
— Victor Goury-Laffont (@Victorglaf) November 7, 2024
Despite its success, Polymarket’s operations have attracted the attention of the French National Gaming Authority, which confirmed an investigation into the platform’s legality. According to French regulators, Polymarket is not authorized to operate within the country, and steps may soon be taken to prevent French citizens from accessing it. The agency has monitored Polymarket since before the election, and a ban on the platform in France may be forthcoming.
REPORT: The French Polymarket trader is set to rake in $48 million in profits and outsmarted nearly every mainstream media pollster in the process.
So how exactly did he outsmart the media pollsters?
According to the Polymarket trader who spoke with the Wall Street Journal, he… pic.twitter.com/kqZyEF78ZG
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) November 7, 2024
The decision to investigate Polymarket follows reports that a French trader used the platform to amass an estimated $85 million by betting on Trump’s win. This significant win, along with the platform’s prediction accuracy, has heightened interest in decentralized markets as a potential alternative to traditional polling and forecasting.
🇫🇷 JUST IN: Polymarket, a crypto-based betting platform, faces a ban in France after a French trader won $19 million on a bet, prompting regulators to deem it illegal gambling. pic.twitter.com/LHnaEC1PLb
— ChainChampion (@Chain_champ1) November 7, 2024
Advocates of prediction markets argue that the platforms offer a new approach to forecasting political outcomes, as they incentivize participants to base decisions on real information. Billionaire Thomas Peterffy remarked that markets like Polymarket are valuable because “people bet the way they think the outcome will occur, not what they want.”
The debate over the future of prediction markets and regulatory compliance is expected to intensify. Polymarket’s success this election cycle highlights its potential for political forecasting, but as authorities move to regulate, the platform’s future may hinge on its ability to navigate the challenges posed by international gambling laws.