German Study Finds Most Young People Will Outgrow Transgender Identity Within Five Years
A comprehensive study conducted in Germany reveals that the majority of young individuals who identify as transgender will desist from this identity within five years. This extensive research tracked children and young adults diagnosed with gender dysphoria over a nine-year period, uncovering significant insights into the prevalence and persistence of gender identity disorders.
The study, carried out by the Central Institute for Statutory Health Insurance, analyzed medical billing records of insured individuals aged five to 24 diagnosed with gender identity disorders from 2013 to 2022. Researchers aimed to understand trends in diagnoses, including demographics and the duration of gender identity struggles.
The findings showed that 63.6% of young people diagnosed with gender dysphoria no longer identified as transgender after five years. Specifically, 72.7% of females aged 15 to 19 and 50.3% of males aged 20 to 24 who initially identified as transgender later reverted to their birth gender.
Additionally, the study highlighted that nearly three-quarters of the young individuals diagnosed with gender dysphoria also suffered from at least one other psychiatric condition. Common comorbidities included depressive disorders, anxiety disorders, emotionally unstable personality disorders, attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD).
The number of young people identified with gender identity disorders surged by 780% over the study period. Although part of this increase is attributed to changes in diagnostic coding, there remains a significant rise in transgender diagnoses. Researchers noted that the highest prevalence of these diagnoses occurred among 15- to 19-year-old females.
The study also considered possible reasons for the spike in diagnoses, ranging from increased awareness and decreased stigmatization to social contagion and overdiagnosis. Researchers emphasized the need for further investigation into the reasons behind the low persistence of gender dysphoria diagnoses and the observed increase in prevalence.
The findings align with similar studies conducted globally, including one from the Netherlands which reported a desistance rate of 64% among young people diagnosed with gender dysphoria. This data challenges the current U.S. affirmation model, which advocates for immediate and unwavering support of transgender identities, including potentially irreversible medical interventions.
Dr. Andre Van Mol, representing several medical associations, argued against the affirmation model, stating that it is not proven to be safe or effective in the long term. He highlighted that gender transition procedures do not reduce suicide rates or resolve underlying mental health issues. Instead, he emphasized the importance of cautious and scientifically sound approaches to treating gender dysphoria in minors.
The peer-reviewed journal Deutsches Ärzteblatt International is set to publish the English version of the study titled “Gender identity disorders among young people in Germany: prevalence and trends, 2013–2022. An analysis of nationwide routine insurance data” in the coming weeks.