Major Job Number Revision Expected: US Employment May Be Far Weaker Than Reported

A significant revision to U.S. employment data is expected on Wednesday, raising concerns about the true state of the economy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to announce its preliminary benchmark revision for the 2024 establishment survey, with some estimates suggesting a downward adjustment of around one million jobs between April 2023 and March 2024.

If the revision is as steep as projected, it would indicate that the job market and overall economy are weaker than portrayed by both corporate media and the Biden-Harris administration. This news could further fuel skepticism that federal agencies have been overstating job gains and economic health under President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.

Such dramatic revisions, while uncommon, are not without precedent. Earlier this year, California’s nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) revealed that reported job gains in the state had been overestimated due to early benchmarks that skewed the data positively. The BLS revision may similarly correct overly optimistic figures, signaling that the employment situation has been misrepresented.

The revision comes on the heels of a disappointing July jobs report, which not only missed expectations but also revealed a spike in the national unemployment rate. This has led some economists to suggest that the U.S. may already be in a recession according to the Sahm Rule, which triggers a recession indicator when the unemployment rate jumps by half a percent over a three-month moving average.

As Wednesday’s announcement approaches, all eyes will be on the BLS to see if the revision confirms fears of a faltering economy.