Pandemic Origins Remain a PUZZLE!

A World Health Organization expert panel concluded that there is no definitive answer yet on how COVID‑19 began, with zoonotic spillover remaining the most supported hypothesis but significant data gaps persisting.

At a Glance

• The WHO Scientific Advisory Group (SAGO) released a report concluding origins remain unconfirmed.

• Evidence supports animal-to-human transmission—likely from bats or an unknown intermediate.

• China has not provided requested genetic sequences or biosafety data.

• Lab-leak theory was not confirmed or dismissed due to insufficient evidence.

• WHO emphasized that more transparency is vital to prevent future pandemics.

Zoonotic Spillover Still Leading Theory

In its final assessment, the WHO’s Scientific Advisory Group for the Origins of Novel Pathogens (SAGO) stated that zoonotic transmission—likely from bats or through an intermediate animal—remains the most plausible explanation for how SARS-CoV-2 emerged. The findings reaffirm conclusions drawn from earlier investigations conducted in 2021.

However, SAGO emphasized that the exact transmission pathway remains unclear, largely due to China’s failure to provide access to virus genomic sequences, lab safety audits, and raw case data. WHO officials acknowledged that efforts to understand the origin have stalled due to these unmet data requests.

Watch a report: WHO expert panel delivers ambiguous verdict on COVID origins

Lab-Leak Theory Left Open but Unconfirmed

While the panel reiterated that animal-origin remains most likely, it did not dismiss the lab-leak theory. Without access to Chinese lab records or biosafety logs, the possibility of a lab incident remains unresolved. WHO officials stressed that further investigation is still needed to evaluate all plausible scenarios.

Recent U.S. intelligence reports—including from the CIA—have also renewed attention on the lab-leak hypothesis, even as no conclusive evidence has emerged. The WHO report warns that without transparency, no theory can be fully verified or ruled out.

Implications for Global Health and Preparedness

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus called understanding the origins of COVID-19 “a moral imperative,” urging countries—especially China—to cooperate with full transparency to prevent future outbreaks. SAGO’s final report reiterates that identifying the source of SARS-CoV-2 is key to advancing pandemic preparedness strategies.

The report’s inconclusive findings echo recent genetic studies from Wuhan market samples, which suggested animal-human viral proximity but lacked definitive transmission evidence. Until such data emerges, COVID’s origin story remains an open and politically charged mystery.